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The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
November 11, 2003
Story by: Eric Theis
Many teams will hit the 20 game mark this week,
the unwritten milepost in the season when coaches
and GM's start to take a serious look at both
the strengths and weaknesses of their teams. After
20 games, the rust should be shed, systems understood,
and talent (or lack there off) established, and
thus a team has a bedrock with which to conduct
self-evaluation. Fantasy managers do should be
doing the same - perhaps now is the time to cut
bait on the rookie you drafted, or make that trade
for a goaltender. Don't go overboard - cutting
Joe Sakic because he is a -2 is absurd. See where
you are hurting so far, and compare those needs
with what the numbers suggest your players will
produce over the season, and move from there.
And if you are a manager that drafted Derian Hatcher,
Marian Hossa, Henrik Zetterberg, or Al MacInnis,
relax - there are plenty of free agents too fill
the gaps left open by injuries to these fantasy
studs. Unless you drafted all of them - then you're
screwed. Good luck this week, and wear your poppies
with pride.
The Good
Vancouver's Top Line 4 GP, 7 G, 9 A, 6 PPP, 2
GWG, 10 PIM, +11
How good was Vancouver's top scoring line of
Markus Naslund, Todd Bertuzzi and Brendan Morrison
last week? Consider this: of the 15 goals the
Canucks amassed last week, the top line accounted
for 7, or 46.6 % of the team's total. By comparison,
Boston and Colorado's top offensive lines (considered
by many hockey commentator as the best lines in
the NHL right now) accounted for 33.3 % (3 of
9 goals), and 30 % (3 of 10) of their team's offense
respectively last week.
Bryan McCabe 3 GP, 1 G, 3 A, 3 PPP, 2 PIM, Even
There have been several theories put forward
about why McCabe had as difficult a season as
he did last year (6 Goals, 18 Assists), in comparison
to 2001 (17 Goals, 26 Assists). One thought was
that McCabe had a difficult time adapting to the
new crackdown by officials on obstruction. However
McCabe's penalty minutes did not significantly
jump from 2001 to 2002. More likely, McCabe was
simply trying to do too much last year, trying
to always make big plays, trying to become a consummate
scoring threat. To be sure, McCabe is a talented
blue liner, with tremendous potential in both
offensive and defensive capacities. While his
skills have matured, his mental toughness still
sees periodic breakdowns, and his overall play
suffers when this occurs. That having been said,
McCabe enters this week on a 6 game point streak,
and seems to have finally gotten past the rust
from missing the opening weeks of the season due
to injury. He will continue to see maximum minutes
on the powerplay, and his reunion with Thomas
Kaberle means he has a strong safety net behind
him, which allows him to jump into the rush, something
he has not done with great frequency since 2001.
Keith Tkachuk 3 GP, 4 G, 0 A, 2 PPP, 3 GWG, 8
PIM, +2
St. Louis enters the week sitting atop the Central
Conference with 19 points, largely due to the
efforts of Mr. Tkachuk. He and line mate Pavol
Demitra lead the Blues in points, but there is
no getting around what Keith's individual contributions
have meant to a St Louis team that is trying to
stay afloat with many key players injured or otherwise
out of the lineup. Tkachuk had 3 game winning
goals last week alone, and rewarding both the
Blues and fantasy managers with great numbers
in all categories. With Doug Weight ineligible
to play again until November 19th, the burden
once again will fall to Tkachuk to provide the
Blues with offense.
Cory Stillman 4 GP, 2 G, 3 A, 2 PPP, +4
Stillman has always shown a great amount of talent
on the ice, but question marks about his consistency
have always plagued him in past seasons with both
Calgary and St. Louis. It appears that a change
of scenery has done Stillman well. Paired with
Martin St. Louis and Brad Richardson in his first
season with Tampa Bay, Stillman has produced on
a regular basis, rewarding both the Lightning
and fantasy owners with an additional scoring
threat beyond Vincent Lecavalier.
Jason King 4 GP, 5 G, 0 A, 2 PPP, Even
I will leave it up to you to determine which
is more surprising; that Jason King would be on
the Vancouver roster at this point in the season,
or that he would have 8 goals in 15 games? While
looked at as a solid blue chip prospect in the
Canucks system, King was rarely mentioned in the
pre-season reviews. At this point, it is difficult
to tell whether or not King's numbers reflect
what the Newfoundland native is capable of, or
if King is playing on a team with enough supporting
talent to elevate his game to its current level.
King did average more than a point per game in
junior hockey, and another 40 points with the
AHL Manitoba Moose last season (20 goals, 20 assists
in 67 games), before his brief NHL call-up. Expect
solid numbers for King this year, although perhaps
not at the 0.66 points per game clip he currently
enjoys.
Honourable Mention:
Scott Stevens 2 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 1 GWG, 2 PIM, Even
It has been a long time since anyone referred
to the Devils Captain as a scoring threat. Stevens
has 2 seasons of 70 + points in his career; mind
you they came in 1993 and 1987. His line from
this week, while unexpected, was a welcomed addition
to a slumping New Jersey offense (2.3 goals a
game), as well to fantasy teams who drafted Stevens
based solely on his consistently solid +/-.
Dwayne Roloson 2 GP, 1 W, 1 L, 0.60 GA, .981
SV%, 1 SO
Roloson has been very solid as of late, and in
so doing has made a legitimate challenge for more
starts. His one loss last week is a bit misleading,
as it came in relief of a besieged Manny Fernandez
in a November 8th game against Vancouver. The
one goal Roloson allowed in 40 minutes of relief
turned out to be the margin of victory for the
Canucks - the definition of a tough luck loss.
Ladislav Nagy 3 GP, 3 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 2 PIM, +1
Another example of good production on an otherwise
bad team, Nagy remains one of the Coyotes only
legitimate offensive threats this year.
The Bad
Martin Biron 1 GP, 0 W, 1 L, 7.88 GAA, .667 SV%
Buffalo stepped onto the ice this season with
heightened expectations in relation to last year's
write-off. New ownership in Buffalo translated
into new free agent acquisitions, and a genuine
feeling that the Sabres had turned a corner. A
pivotal point for how this season will go, lies
very much in the quality of the Sabres goaltending.
Biron got off to a good start but has stumbled
as of late, allowing 11 goals in 3 games. Mind
you, seven of those came in last week's stinker
against Atlanta - and those numbers might have
been limited, had Coach Lindy Ruff not insisted
on leaving Biron on the for most of the game.
Biron is not a rookie, so he can take the occasional
shelling much better than a fantasy owner can.
Expect Biron's game to return to usual form.
Wade Redden 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, -4
Isn't defense supposed to be one of Ottawa's
greatest strengths? Redden is one of those rare
gems for NHL and fantasy teams alike: a defenseman
with above average scoring touch, who plays on
a team with depth and is committed to playing
a responsible defensive game. Redden and the Sens
showed none of these assets last week, posting
a record of 0 - 2 - 1 - 1. While his week can
easily be dismissed as an anomaly, the Sens are
not playing like the Stanley Cup favorite many
predicted them to be. Clearly their slump has
the team's management concerned, as the word out
of Ottawa is that play needs to improve or changes
will be made. Redden will be one of several Sens
players expected to turn things around quickly.
Manny Fernandez GP, 0 W, 1 L, 0 T, 4.98 GAA,
.841 SV%
For the past few seasons with Minnesota, it has
been a given that Fernandez and Dwayne Roloson
would split the starts for the Wild - and that
arrangement has worked thus far. This season might
be different: Fernandez' numbers are off from
his career averages, and his GAA is teetering
dangerously close to 3.00. If this continues,
Manny will soon find himself relegated to back-up
duties as Minnesota tries to hang on to a playoff
spot this year.
Doug Weight 2 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, +2
St. Louis would not be St. Louis if one of their
top players did not find himself sitting out a
few games due to, well, we'll call it "over-enthusiastic
play." While this dubious honour is customarily
reserved for Keith Tkachuk, Weight currently finds
himself watching games from the press box; a result
of a cross check to Vancouver's Henrik Sedin.
As a result, the Blues are without their second
leading scorer until the 19th; and the suspension
comes when the Blues are already without the services
of Scott Mellanby and Al MacInnis. Granted there
is a short list of NHLers who are truly most effective
as a result of playing with and aggressive edge,
and yes this style of play results in more than
a few penalties. However there is a line, and
too often certain players - Bertuzzi, Tkachuk,
Joe Thorton and Weight most notably - go to far,
and end up hurting rather than helping their team.
It is the tradeoff for the production these guys
bring forward however, so most teams, fantasy
or otherwise, have no choice but to suck it up.
The Ugly
Mike Modano 3 GP, 1 G, 0 A (6 SOG), -7
Sergi Zubov 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A (3 SOG), - 8
I could not make up my mind as to which player
was worse this week. So rather become preoccupied
with trying to rank the ineffective, hollow performances
of both players, in the spirit of fair play I
have declared a tie. Modano is clearly distracted
by whatever investments he had that went belly-up.
How else does one explain a -12 from a player
who is a regular candidate for the Frank J. Selke
Trophy? As for Zubov? While his point production
is on pace with his career stats ( currently at
0.66 points per game), perhaps no one is suffering
more from the loss of Derian Hatcher than Zubov.
Hatcher was the perfect complement to Zubov, able
to play a physical, stay-at-home role so that
Zubov join rushes, and exhibit his offensive flair.
Without Hatcher, Zubov is having difficulties
adjusting to a myriad of defense partners, none
of whom come close to the skill and strength of
Zubov's former partner. The schedule Dallas has
over the next five games does not offer much relief
either; the will face off against Colorado, Los
Angeles, and St. Louis. Dallas could find themselves
in a serious hole, should these two not be able
to right their ships.
Questions or comments about this, or another fantasy
article? fantasy@hockeylink.ca
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